Pharma in 2021 Part 2

The rush to find an effective vaccine was the story of 2020 and a major scientific achievement. This week we look at the impact of the vaccine’s development on the Pharmaceutical Industry in 2021. Wesley Winn is a 1994 graduate of UCF. He is a member of the college’s Dean’s Advisory Board and currently is Vice President of Commercial Operations for Hyperion Therapeutics. He is offers his thoughts below…

COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis.  Pharmaceutical organizations will play a fundamentally critical role.  Considering recent government interventions to curb pharmaceutical prices and investigations into industry practices, this is an opportunity for the industry to rebrand itself.   Also, an opportunity to better align with physicians, health systems and the supply chain to ensure patients have access to acute and preventative COVID-19 therapies.

Some of the questions I explored are the impact of COVID-19 on Pharmaceutical Commercialization as it relates to:

• Health Operations (Physicians and Health Systems):  Are stay at home orders leading to treatment disruptions.   Are patients reluctant to visit centers for fear of COVID-19 transmission?  How will this impact the pharmaceutical sales force model for detailing physicians. 
• Payers: What will the impact of job loses mean for commercial private insurance.   Will Medicaid funding increase.   What about timelines for reimbursing newly approved Food and Drug Administration (FDA) therapies?    Will payers support digital health? 
• Patients:  What is the impact of loss of jobs on loss of benefits?  Treatment interruptions and adherence?   How will patients afford care?   
• Supply Chain:  Will the need for repurposed therapies or complex formulations cause shortages in therapies for other disorders and COVID therapies?
• Government and Policy Makers:  How will COVID-19 impact the time to market for pharmaceuticals going through trials?  What about pharmaceutical pricing pressure?

HEALTH OPERATIONS

The high-tech industry, the healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry will more closely align. Digital health tools and automation will be engines to accelerate transparency.   While pharmaceuticals are often the policy focus for cost containment, they make up approximately 10% of healthcare costs.  Physician services, clinical spending and U.S. health systems make up the remainder of the costs.   The price increases across these sectors is an area for continuing debate. 

COVID-19 will continue to shift care out of the most-costly areas of the sector to outpatient and at home care, relying on telemedicine.    The government and major private insurance companies are bolstering physician fees to incentivize telemedicine.     This coupled by patients’ apprehension to go onsite will continue to drive digital health in a Zoom world.    Patients will also demand more transparency into their health.  Health apps for monitoring healthcare status and electronic medical records will increase.   

Reevaluating the future of work will be a key focus for many industries and pharmaceutical operations will be no exception. There may be less focus on requirements to work on site.   Pharmaceutical sale forces are essential to commercializing new products.   They are also costly.  Expect to see more e-detailing and teller sales.   This could decrease the size of pharmaceutical sales forces. 

SUPPLY CHAIN

Branded products have longer patent life protections by government and profitable to manufacturers.  Profits for generics are very marginal. These products are often manufactured oversees and the raw materials are lean.  Repurposed drugs such as malaria medication Hydroxychloroquine may run into shortages for its originally intended purpose.   Also, because there is strict federal guidance on pharmaceutical manufacturing practices and inventory management, there has been reported supply chain disruptions.   One therapy Veklury (Remdesivir), used to curb COVID-19 ICU mortality was reported to be in a shortage due to manufacturing challenges and ineffective supply chain management by the government.   The case and death rates may not have aligned with the allocation of therapy to health centers, with the most need.   Clearly an opportunity for business and epidemiological analytics teams.

Supply chain partners will enhance their at home, school or work drug shipment models to create greater access to care.   Now that Amazon has entered the drug industry.   Drone delivery of medicines are here to stay. 

GOVERNMENT POLICY MAKING

According to PHRMA, the major pharmaceutical trade organization.  On average, it takes at least ten years for a new medicine to complete the journey from initial discovery to the marketplace.  The average cost of research and development of each successful drug is estimated to be 2.6 Billion.  The government has clearly more closely aligned with pharmaceutical companies’ goals to expedite time to market. One example in the United States is the Food and Drug Administration’s recently announced Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program (CTAP), which aims to better support companies and scientists looking to field trials, as well as, helping to expeditiously qualify new treatments for use.    The policies are already paying dividends as the CEO of Genentech, a San Francisco based biotech mentioned that a trial merging Actemra with Gilead’s Veklury (Remdesivir) was the speediest trial in the company’s storied history.  Note Genentech is the first Biotech in history and Remdesivir is being used in 1 out of 2 COVID-19 patients in the hospital.  We are going to need more therapies beyond vaccines to combat this pandemic.   We will also see more global partnerships in the form of in-licensing and mergers (e.g., Pfizer and BioNtTech for the COVID vaccine). 

HEALTH CARE AFFORDABILITY

The are many studies on patient and payer (insurer) dichotomy.   Insurers inherently want to keep the patients healthy.   It’s is good for patients and profitability; they can bring in premiums as revenue and spend less on care.   Patients inherently want the best care possible and may seek out care in the most expensive parts of the system (hospitals, ICU, ER) if needed.   For good or bad the system works when people are insured; either private through their employer.  Or by the government.  Medicare insures people who are 65 years old and above or Medicaid for the indigent population as certain Federal Poverty Line (FPL) income threshold.  According to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 16 million people have loss their job due to COVID.   Over 50% may not be able to go back, due to their employers lost or closed business during the pandemic.  The people with lost jobs may slowly meet the income threshold to qualify for Medicaid.   Government spending for healthcare continues to increase contributing to the country’s deficit. 

Most countries outside the US have social systems that provide healthcare to their citizens.  Of course, nothing is free of charge.   Taxation of citizens is one of the revenue streams to pay for care.   The COVID-19 pandemic will again put the debate of private free market care and socialistic healthcare back at center stage in the U.S.  The Trump led Operation Warp Speed and the recent Biden led American Relief Plan both provide provisions for free COVID testing and vaccines.   It may also provide support for more acute therapies.   Biden is also refocusing on the Affordable Care Act.   While the quick funding of therapies is likely a welcome reversal of the lengthy delays in reimbursement of new therapies.   Expect continued pricing pressure on pharmaceuticals as Biden revamps the Obama led the Affordable Care Act.   Other industry executives should be consulted to inform the optimal balance of rewarding and encouraging life-saving innovation and ensuring we have a healthy nation. 

CONCLUSION

As pharma leaders focus on their pandemic crisis response, it is important to consider the questions posed in this review.  The questions and the implications for their respective companies in increasing resiliency and better adapting to the post-COVID-19 world.   These questions and opportunities should also be explored by the next generation of leaders in business administration, health care administration and public health programs.  

Pharma in 2021 Part 1

The rush to find an effective vaccine was the story of 2020 and a major scientific achievement. This week we look at the impact of the vaccine’s development on the Pharmaceutical Industry in 2021. Dr. Michael Pape is Dr. Phillips Entrepreneur in Residence; Professor of Practice in our Department of Management. He is a serial entrepreneur and biotech executive who has co-founded several life science companies, including Esperion Therapeutics, Orchard Venture Partners (a life science venture capital firm), Akebia Therapeutics and Nymirum. He offers the following…

External forces on a business lead to executive and board reviews of the current business model and corresponding strategies.   Those external forces can include technology trends, market changes, industry rearrangements, and macroeconomic shocks.  In 2020 we experienced how nature in the form of a small virus, SARS-Cov-2, became a tsunamic force altering most industry landscapes.  Covid-19 (the disease resulting from infection with SARS-Cov-2), like all forces, can lead to business evolution.  What changes will the pharma industry experience in 2021?   Frankly, I am leery of prognosticators who in actuality “don’t know”; indeed, I don’t know.  However, it is difficult to engage readers by embracing utter uncertainty and since I committed to writing this short post, I offer this with the requisite reservations.   

Before I give you my take, you need to know that Pharma companies follow a process which is broken down into two broad sequential phases: drug discovery and drug development.  That is, first one invents a drug and tests its efficacy and safety using appropriate animal models and second, one moves on to a 3-phase process of testing the invented drug in human clinical trials. The end goal is to secure approval from the FDA to manufacture, market, and sell the drug for a specific disease indication.

How much will Covid-19 change drug discovery throughout Pharma?  In my opinion, not much.  Pharma companies build a disease and research portfolio to mitigate risk.   Research on infectious agents (bacteria, viruses) is just one aspect of that portfolio.  Portfolios include research programs and drug candidates in cancer, cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative disease, neuromuscular disease, mental health, endocrinology, and a plethora of other therapeutic areas.  Those ships were launched pre-Covid.  They will either end as wreckage or reach their destination as a drug candidate entering human clinical trials.  Those pre-Covid programs have been approved internally by satisfying the criteria of meeting an unmet medical need and which, if successful would add significantly to the company’s bottom line.  Anti-infectives are generally not chronic in nature so patients do not need to be treated over and over (think 10-day course of antibiotics) which can limit revenue generation.  Chronic diseases on the other hand (diabetes, high cholesterol) require years and years of drug purchases.  Pharma generally prefers programs in chronic diseases.  It is unclear if moving large numbers of scientists to acute treatment paradigms such as vaccines would lead to similar cost-benefit and risk analyses compared to chronic disease programs currently running. Generally, vaccines and anti-microbials have not contributed significantly to Pharma revenue (an exception being nucleoside analogue drugs for Hepatitis and HIV) and thus, those types of programs have been shuttered over the years. Companies that maintained virus research programs can leverage existing assets and possibly justify vaccine development. That has been the case with Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson.  Perhaps, “Covid long-haulers” provide a chronic opportunity for Pharma but much is unknown about disease persistence in these patients.

From an operations management perspective the bottleneck in drug development is typically patient recruitment and retention for a clinical trial.  How much has Covid-19 changed clinical trial management?  The answer is drastically.  It appears that over 90% of non-Covid clinical trials were either paused or delayed at one point in 2020 (here).  Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 morbidity and mortality rates plus the emergence of new virus variants has led many would-be trial participants to stay away from healthcare facilities and thus, balk at trial enrollment.  Clinical scientists who design trials also face uncertainty.  Those scientists establish “exclusion criteria”, i.e., what pre-existing medical conditions would exclude a potential clinical trial participant from being enrolled.  Do clinical scientists exclude those who have had Covid-19 but are now “resolved”?  What about those who have received a vaccine or not?  Which vaccine?  Pharma will need to address that issue on a per trial basis.  Also, if clinical trial endpoints include measurements in hospitalizations, exercise metrics, patient-reported outcomes (PROs), biomarkers, imaging, and a myriad of other possible endpoints, how does one account for alterations in those endpoints as trial participants become infected with the virus during the clinical trial?  In my opinion, drug development in 2021 will be front and center for the industry.  Clinical trial delays of a yearly magnitude will delay potential revenue streams which can alter business strategy.

HR in 2021 Part 2

Gustaf Isaksson is Division Vice President and General Manager at ADP. ADP is one of our many corporate partners in the College of Business. ADP stresses the importance of engagement as we move forward into 2021. Click on the link below to read more…

https://www.adp.com/spark/articles/2020/12/evolving-work-trends-in-2021-engagement-as-the-proactive-path-forward.aspx

HR in 2021

2020 was the year that working from home became a big thing. This week we focus on what all that working from home will mean for human resources in 2021 as we hopefully start to dig out of the strange world brought on by COVID. Dr. Gordon Henry is a lecturer in our Integrated Business department and an expert in Human Resources. He gives us his take below….

Human resource (HR) professionals have the dual responsibilities of helping ensure organizational success and supporting the development and well-being of individual employees.  The current pandemic has made very clear the need for focusing on the latter.  Flexible work arrangements, socially-distanced work spaces, and hand sanitizing stations are now the norm in organizational efforts to keep employees safe and healthy.  However, the rise of Covid-19 has also made it more challenging for HR professionals to achieve the former goal, that of contributing to organizational success, and the means for HR to achieve this may not be so obvious.

Many consider the primary way in which an HR department accomplishes this is through creating and marketing its organization’s Employee Value Proposition (EVP); a comprehensive but somewhat murky measure of the ability to attract and retain motivated and competent employees.  We know that recent generations of workforce entrants have somewhat de-emphasized base pay in favor of factors like developmental opportunities and organizational culture issues in making their employment decisions.  With regard to employee development, organizations can offer a myriad of online training opportunities, but many recent efforts in this area focused on mentoring and coaching programs have been waylaid by the virus.  HR professionals are now faced with the need to adapt these programs to a virtual world while still retaining the personal “feel” of them.  Those who can achieve this, possibly by mastering various internet-based communication technologies, will have a definite advantage in attracting outstanding employees and retaining their top talent.

Possibly even more challenging in this era of remote work is the ability to communicate an organization’s culture to prospective employees.  There are no facility tours, lunches with company representatives, or even face-to-face interviews to give candidates a “feel” for what it would be like to work in the organization.  Again, HR professionals must rely on their mastery of social media platforms and marketing skills to accomplish this.  Video testimonials from current employees and customers, virtual tours (akin to those used by real estate agents to market properties virtually), and special programming such as “A Day in the Life of…” can be effective in communicating to prospective employees important elements of an organization’s culture.

To keep current employees engaged with the organization, many of these same communication media, as well as an organization’s intranet,-can be used but the content would have a different focus.  To this end, the most effective messages tend to be frequent and fairly short.  In addition to more frequent manager “check-ins”, these messages can convey various changes in organizational policies and procedures, keep everyone updated on their colleagues’ movement within the organization, and, maybe most importantly, celebrate individual and organizational successes such as meeting a cost reduction goal, signing on a new client or customer, or even finishing a virtual 10K that helped raise money for a charitable organization supported by the company.  To promote the feeling of family, one company has adopted a monthly tradition in which employees use Zoom to introduce to co-workers their spouses, children, or pets who are now co-occupying their workspaces.

Human resource departments will need to be extremely creative in their efforts to engage current employees and increase, or at least maintain, their employers’ EVPs.  Somewhat obvious changes like expanding benefits to include more flexible leave policies to accommodate Covid-related situations and more coverage of mental health-related costs probably will not be sufficient.  HR professionals will need to become highly proficient social media marketers to ensure that current employees remain engaged and that candidates with needed skills are attracted to their open positions.

Retail in 2021 Part 2

Don Unser – is a 1992 graduate of the college and UCF College of Business Dean’s Advisory Board Member. He is Group President, Retail Business Group, at The NPD Group, the leading source on consumer spending with Point-of-sale data from over 600,000 retail locations, plus e-commerce and mobile platforms. Don is especially qualified to speak on this topic…….

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive and unprecedented changes in U.S. consumer spending that will have short-term and long-term implications for retail. As a result, the purchase trends we saw in 2020 will certainly set the stage for 2021.

Heading into 2021, U.S. retail spending remains strong. The NPD Group recorded a $100 billion increase in U.S. retail spending in 2020 versus 2019. I expect this strong performance to continue in the beginning months of 2021. In a time of such drastic challenges, many are surprised that retail is performing well. But it’s important to consider that the pandemic is leading to decreased spending for experiences (travel, live events, etc.)outside the home. Consumers are using much of this freed-up source of cash to buy products that facilitate working, learning,and eating at home. For instance, rather than eating out, consumers are increasingly preparing their own meals. In 2020, this shift drove a 14% increase in household grocery spending.Relatedly, consumers are investing in their kitchens leading to a rise in sales for small appliances and housewares. 

There are numerous other examples of instances where U.S retail spending is increasing. The need for consumers to work, learn, and stay entertained at home has led to strong performance in the consumer technology space. Toys, homefitness, and video games are additional examples of industries that are growing. I expect these trends to continue until vaccines are more broadly distributed later in the year. 

Looking further ahead, once restrictions begin to ease, I expect to see a strong uptick in spending for leisure entertainment such as travel, live events, gyms, and movies. I estimate the annualized spend for those activities in 2019 was nearly $500B. That’s a huge figure with implications that extend beyond consumer spending given the employment linked to those industries. A rise in leisure entertainment spending, however,will likely cause a pull-back in some of the product categoriesthat have grown due to the pandemic as consumers re-allocate their spend. On the other hand, industries that have recentlysuffered at retail, like apparel and footwear, will benefit as consumers look to refresh their wardrobes to partake in activitiesthat take place outside the home. 

A return to leisure entertainment spending in the U.S. is inevitable as more people get vaccinated and feel more comfortable leaving their homes. Many families have not had their annual vacation in 2020 and cabin fever will lead to pent-up demand for a variety of experiences. I expect many will splurge. In this regard, companies in the leisure entertainment space should bolster their premium offerings to capitalize on this behavior. 

In light of all these factors, I expect 2021 to be another roller-coaster year for consumer-facing businesses. Overall, however, I remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. consumer.

Retail in 2021 Part 1

Retail, especially bricks and mortar retail, has seen a lot of disruption in recent years. This week we focus on what is in store for 2021 as we hopefully start to dig out of the strange world brought on by COVID. Anand Krishnamoorthy is an associate professor of marketing here in the college and is our go-to person on retail. He gazes into his crystal ball below…

To understand what is in store for retail in 2021, let us look at four shifts brought about — or accelerated — by COVID in 2020:

Mode (online vs. B&M): In 2019, about 16% of all retail was online. While that number for 2020 is TBD, it is bound to be record-breaking given the online boom after COVID. Obviously, physical retail suffered: for instance, B&M traffic was down over 50% during Black Friday in 2020 relative to 2019.

Store (big-box vs. mom-and-pop): COVID fears have led consumers to minimize the number of shopping trips: one trip to a big-box store is more efficient — and less risky — than visiting multiple mom-and-pop stores. This trend paid huge dividends for the behemoths. What about small businesses? Many of them have not survived to tell us.

Product (tangible vs. experience): Demand for experiences (e.g., travel and dining) took a serious hit from COVID. Outside of pandemic supplies, sales of smart devices, gaming and toys, home decorations, and exercise goods boomed as consumers spent more time at home — for work and for pleasure.

Consumer (affluent vs. not-so-fortunate): How has retail overcome COVID? The decrease in spending from lower-income consumers was more than offset by the affluent. Yes, job losses and limited government support hurt badly, but the wealthy made it out just fine. More than fine: they rode the stock market to all-time highs.

As the majority gets vaccinated and Congress provides greater assistance to individuals and small businesses, where is retail headed in 2021? Given the aforementioned shifts, a term that comes to mind is hysteresis. Broadly defined, it is the (in)ability to snap back to the pre-impact state. How much hysteresis will the above trends demonstrate?

The growth of online has been unsurprising, but there can be no doubt that COVID quickened that pace in 2020. As consumers return to B&M, online is likely to give up some of its COVID gains. Even so, e-retail accounting for 20% of overall retail over the next few years would have been plausible even without COVID.

When COVID cases subside and consumers get vaccinated, mom-and-pop stores will begin seeing increased traffic as consumers shop for pleasure and visit multiple stores per trip. Why did Walmart and Target thrive in 2020? They had prioritized online well before COVID. If there is one lesson for the mom-and-pops from COVID, it is that they cannot be completely reliant on foot traffic. Even if they cannot sell online, they must be willing — and able — to provide product and store information online in engaging ways to keep potential consumers interested.

COVID was a boon for home products. As vaccines erase lockdowns and social distancing from memory, “experience” purchases like travel and dining will bounce back. How quickly these sectors rebound will depend on the pace of financial recovery across all segments of the population.

Retail needs more than just the affluent consumer. Its historical strength has revolved around every type of consumer playing a role in stimulating demand. It is unlikely that all the jobs lost to COVID are coming back in 2021. As the last few months have shown, support to prop up individuals and small businesses is slow to come by in Congress and in local governments. Much will depend on additional rounds of stimulus.

Higher Education in 2021 Part 2

We continue our conversation on higher education in 2021 with the comments of Dr. David Klock. David was a faculty member at UCF, went on to be a CEO and a Dean at three different schools. If you’d like to join the conversation, leave a comment to this post. We would love to read it.

The driver of higher ed in 2021 will be focused on delivering the unique mission of each university. For many years the mission of UCF has been access with excellence. UCF is an elite accessible university – demonstrating every day that affordable access does not impede excellence in teaching, research and service. As President Cartwright says, UCF can be elite without being elitist. However, the pandemic is changing the nature of many existing and potential UCF students. An ever-growing, large percentage of UCF’s exceptional students will be nontraditional diverse students who, out of financial necessity, are working more hours and will need flexibility to optimize their joint opportunities in work and education.

I believe UCF is well prepared to create an exceptional set of experiences for both the growing number of nontraditional students and their many traditional and often younger peers. I believe they help to lift up each other—given their unique and diverse set of life experiences.  

Let’s explore a couple of things causing this transition and its potential impact in 2021. Many traditional UCF students are now in the nontraditional group as pandemic-related financial concerns have caused them to seek expanded employment.  Additionally, many bright students who left the Orlando area to enroll in respected campuses around the U.S. may, due to financial issues, now be seeking to work in Central Florida and attend UCF.  Some may have dropped out until their family financial condition improves—or until they are provided a new financial pathway that integrates working with their desired course of study. As Covid vaccinations gradually cause an expanded opening of the Florida economy in 2021, students will likely have more working options that better align with their career plans and respective majors at UCF. 

Nontraditional diverse students seek lower net tuition and education flexibility required by working. By necessity, these students will desire that many of their classes be quality online and hybrid modalities that provide flexibility as to whether they need to travel to UCF. They see quality online classes as uniquely designed and executed for online activities—with a series of focused lessons integrated with interactive exercises and with mentored discussion boards stimulating peer-to-peer joint learning. They appreciate student-to-faculty online discussions/mentoring. They also seek flexibility as to when they focus on their UCF class activities. They may take longer to graduation as they may take fewer classes per term. Proactive retention services become more important. They do want to be geographically close to the highly respected teacher/scholars who willingly lead UCF’s variety of quality classes but seek flexibility in having valued faculty interactions.

Thomas L. Friedman in his recent book on the Age of Accelerations notes that quality higher ed is moving to support working students and their employers by helping create integrated and synergistic learnings, gained both in course work and in the evolving and innovative working environments—in a sense creating a personalized co-op program. He also discusses that a positive working environment will provide both enhanced access to technology and mentored support—both factors in improved progress to a degree.

UCF and its College of Business will continue in 2021 to lead in confronting these sets of challenges—all done in a mixture of traditional classrooms, hybrid and fully online modalities—based on the decisions of competent and willing faculty members. Variations of learning goals and modalities are part of the academic excellence of UCF, as UCF supports the central role of faculty in program and course development. To the UCF faculty and staff members, we say, “Thank You for your special efforts in these evolving times of stress and transitions. CHARGE ON!”

David Klock, Ph.D.

Higher Education in 2021 Part 1

Today, you get my take on what 2021 will bring to higher education. Wednesday you will hear from Dr. David Klock. David is a former UCF faculty member, CEO of CompBenefits, and three-time business school Dean. If you want to join the conversation, leave a comment to this blog post. We would love to hear from you.

Much has been written and will be written about the financial challenges universities are facing because of the pandemic. In this respect, 2021 is likely to be worse than 2020, especially here in Florida where the pandemic has decimated tourism, and state coffers are unlikely to be replenished before budgets are set for the upcoming school year. But truth be told, public universities go through budget crises about once every 10 years or so. The process is painful, but it is rarely, if ever, transformative.

The real challenge for higher education and the one that holds the most promise for transformation, perhaps in the form of reaffirmation, will happen in the fall of 2021. By then colleges will be reopening in earnest and it will be more than 18 months since many students have set foot on their campuses. Last year’s college freshmen, those who lost the last part of their senior year of high school, will be on campus for the first time.  Many members of the freshmen class of 2021 will come to campus having lost most of their junior and all of their senior year to virtual classes. 

Many believe the lack of face-to-face education has put these students behind both academically and socially. Today’s media is filled with stories about students who are struggling.  The picture being painted is that performance is down. Many low income students lack access to the electronic resources they need to successfully experience virtual courses. Other students lack motivation due to the stresses of the pandemic and alienation caused by hastily created online environments. Education is after all, social — it is best experienced together. No one in history has ever said: “I can’t wait to experience college online.” Online education is convenient for students who have competing priorities and university leaders worried about the rising costs of campus infrastructure, but 2020 may have uncovered the limits of digital learning and the virtues of being on campus.

A real tipping point may come early in 2021. If current students don’t return for their spring semester (i.e., retention falls) and fall 2021 applications don’t pick up, 2021 could be the beginning of a movement to refocus attention on the campus experience and closing the academic performance gap created by the pandemic through greater access to remedial courses, more partnerships with employers to help students skill up and new co-curricular activities to meet the surge in demand for campus engagement. I’m not suggesting that online education will go away. It plays an important access role for people who are place bound or can’t afford to immerse themselves in a campus experience, but I do think the notion that it is the modality of choice for students and university administrators alike is likely to wane and a new appreciation for face-to-face learning is likely to emerge.